Looks like we are not seriously
ready to arrest and reduce the rising surface temperature of planet Earth as
human inhabitants of the Earth.
Please note that I used the
adjective human to qualify inhabitants in the preceding sentence. There are
other inhabitants in the Earth too. I did not refer to them in the sentence. I
referred to humans because overwhelmingly, and increasingly, there is a
convergence of thought that it is the activities of humans that are, and
continue leading to a warming planet. The surface temperature keeps rising, notwithstanding
a steady rise in usage of renewables. That is a turn from, for example, the use
of fossil fuel, the burning of which concentration of greenhouse gas (carbon) is
left in the atmosphere.
The leading 3 greenhouse gas emissions
are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
There is a temperature set for
planet Earth to keep it habitable for its inmates, and its good health.
By our inability to maintain the
set and normal temperature for a habitable planet Earth we are causing havoc to
the only habitation we have been designed to fit into exclusively. The name for
that havoc, which, as has been hinted, is as a result of man’s mishandling of
the resources of the Earth, is commonly known as climate change!
Man knows this. Man knows the
mess in which they find themselves. From the sophisticated research centers of
the world to farming villages dysfunctions in climate is noted. All are agreed
on this point. Where there is a sharp divide is the causative source. The base
of the divide is whether the mess is man-induced or naturally induced (a
natural cyclical event).
In any case the mess must be
dealt with.
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC)
To deal with the mess, man, under
the auspices of the United Nations Organization, has drawn an international environmental
agreement at the global level. The international agreement or convention is
called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The
UNFCCC then became the mop with which the UN had to clean the mess, as it
were.
The terms of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change were discussed between February, 1991
and May, 1992 and opened for signature at the June 1992 United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). UNCED is also known as Rio
Earth Summit. The conference took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Thereafter, the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change entered into force (became effective) on March 21, 1994.
Parties to the Convention as of
2015 (197) was formed from the following:
All United Nations members
Palestine (UN observer state)
UN non-member states (Cook
Islands and Niue)
European Union
(supranational)
The ultimate objective of the
Convention is stated in Article 2 of the Convention as follows:
“The ultimate objective of this
Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties
may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the
Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be
achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally
to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
To give a clearer picture of the
objective, the Convention itself has given definitions of the following terms
that occurred in the objective in Article 1:
“Climate change” means a change
of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. (Article
1(2))
“Climate system” means the
totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere and their
interactions. (Article 1(3))
“Greenhouse gases” means those gaseous
constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and
re-emit infrared radiation. (Article 1(5))
Another term indicated in the
ultimate objective of the Convention that needs to be clarified is the term
“Conference of the Parties”. Conference of the Parties (COP) is defined as “the
supreme decision-making body of the Convention. All States that are Parties to
the Convention are represented at the COP, at which they review the
implementation of the Convention and any other legal instruments that the COP
adopts and takes decisions necessary to promote the effective implementation of
the Convention including, institutional and administrative arrangements.”
CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES (COP)
A task of the COP is to review
the national communications and emission inventories submitted by the Parties.
Based on the information gathered
from the review the COP evaluates the effects of the measures taken by the
Parties and the progress made towards the achievement of the ultimate objective
of the Convention.
The COP meets every year, but the
Parties may decide otherwise.
Since the 1st meeting
of COP in Bonn in 1995, there has been 24 COP meeting to date (2018). The
current meeting, COP 24, the 24th meeting is taking place in
Katowice, Poland from December 2, 2018 to December 14, 2018.
The COP presidency rotates among
the 5 United Nations regions as follows:
Africa
Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
Central and Eastern Europe
Western Europe and Others
For me, out of the 24 COPs so
far, the two substantially outstanding COPs are COP 3 and COP 21.
COP 3- KYOTO PROTOCOL
It was at COP 3 in December, 1997
that the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, and it went into force in 2005. The
Protocol set targets for countries (industrialized countries) to reduce their greenhouse
gas (carbon) emissions. Developing countries including China and India were not
mandated to reduce their carbon emissions in that they were not pumping out
that much carbon.
The website https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-was-the-kyoto-protocol.html
in an article with the heading “What Was The Kyoto Protocol?” has this to say
under subheading, Accomplishment: “The Kyoto Protocol was the world’s first
major global emissions reduction treaty, and increased awareness and
international cooperation towards resolving the climate change crisis. This was
the first treaty to legally bind countries to their commitments on greenhouse
gas emission reductions.”
Under the same subheading, the
article quoted Christiana Figueres, while Executive Secretary of UNFCC thus: “The Kyoto Protocol was a remarkable
achievement in many ways. It not only underscored the scientific reality that
greenhouse gas emissions need to fall. But it also put in place pioneering
concepts, flexible options, practical solutions and procedures for
accountability that we often take for granted today”.
To further hit home the outstanding nature of the Kyoto Protocol I give you
another extract from the website https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/11/kyoto-protocol
as follows: “The Kyoto protocol was the first agreement between nations to
mandate country-by-country reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions”.
From what have been stated one can deduce point by point, the critical and
outstanding nature of the COP 3, and I hereby deduce as follows:
The Protocol was the first major global emissions reduction treaty.
The Protocol brought about international cooperation towards resolving the
climate change crisis.
The Protocol underscored the scientific reality that greenhouse gas
emissions need to fall.
The Protocol put in place pioneering concepts.
COP 21- 2015 PARIS CLIMATE
CONFERENCE
Between COP 3 and COP 21 there
have activities to review and fine tune COP 3 with a view to achieving the
ultimate objective of the UNFCCC. Out of that spirit was born COP 21. Though
COP 21 is a COP it is an outstanding COP. COP 3, the Kyoto Protocol technically
expires in 2020, and COP 21 takes over, or enters into force in 2020.
The extract that follows, from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement,
tells us how COP 21 is outstanding:
“The Paris Agreement builds upon
the Convention and for the first time brings all nations into a common
cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to
its effects, with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so. As
such, it charts a new course in the global climate effort.
The Paris Agreement central
aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by
keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature
increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
The Convention being the UNFCCC,
the foundation and framework within which the COPs operate to achieve the
ultimate goal of the UNFCC.
RENEWABLES
The center of global efforts to
attain the UNFCCC ultimate goal is the dynamics of reducing carbon emissions
into the atmosphere while increasing the use of renewables. The use of
renewables do not require the pumping of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
It means the replacing of resources that generate greenhouse gases (carbon) as
we are experiencing now, with natural resources that generate no such carbon.
For example the use of sunlight to generate energy does not give us the global
warming bother that fossil fuel does.
The significance of the use of
renewables is that the issue of greenhouse gas emission does not come up, and
the resource can be used over and over again, thus ensuring sustainability.
Some of the renewables are:
Solar
Wind
Water
Geothermal
The idea is for the foregoing to
steadily and systematically take the place of the following as sources of
energy for the creation of clean and sustainable civilization:
Oil
Coal
Gas
At the launch of the “Global 100%
Renewable Energy Platform” in Bonn in May, 2017, Nick Nuttall, Spokesperson for
the UNFCCC on behalf of the Executive Secretary, UNFCCC (Patricia Espinoza)
made some statements on renewables that is worth stating here. (https://unfccc.int/news/unfccc-welcomes-global-100-renewable-energy-platform)
The spokesperson
said at the launch that: “The Paris Agreement is unique in that it clearly lays
out the path to a low carbon, resilient future and has a clear
destination—climate neutrality in the second half of the century—if the world
is to keep a global temperature rise well below 2 degrees C, let alone meet the
1.5-degree C target.
Climate
neutrality is about restoring the balance of emissions out and emissions in. It
is not going to be easy to achieve, but achieve it we must if we are to hand
over a healthy world to the next generation.”
MEETING TARGETS
In using UNFCCC as UN’s mop, how
much has carbon emissions been reduced, and how much renewables brought on
board to strike the required balance towards the UNFCCC’s ultimate goal?
Some strides have been made in
the introduction and application of renewables towards the attainment of the
ultimate goal of the UNFCCC yet man has a long way to go still. To give weight
to what I have just stated, I should quote as follows an IEA statement from
their website (https://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/):
“Renewable energy is at the centre of the transition to a less carbon-intensive
and more sustainable energy system. Renewables have grown rapidly in recent
years, accompanied by sharp cost reductions for solar photovoltaics and wind
power in particular. The electricity sector remains the brightest spot for
renewables with the exponential growth of solar photovoltaics and wind in
recent years, and building on the significant contribution of hydropower
generation. But, electricity accounts for only a fifth of global energy consumption,
and the role of renewables in the transportation and heating sectors remains
critical to the energy transition.”
Going forward, what then are the
prospects of the UN’s mop in making the 1.5⁰C target?
An answer to that question is
found in the Executive Summary in Chapter 2 of an IPCC report (https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/SR15_Chapter2_Low_Res.pdf).
The chapter is titled “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context
of Sustainable Development”. Under a chapter 2 subtitle “The Chances of
Limiting Warming to 1.5°C and the Requirements for Urgent Action” the report
says of the future: “Under emissions in line with current pledges under the
Paris Agreement (known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), global
warming is expected to surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, even if these
pledges are supplemented with very challenging increases in the scale and
ambition of mitigation after 2030 (high confidence). This increased action
would need to achieve net zero CO2 emissions in less than 15 years. Even if
this is achieved, temperatures would only be expected to remain below the 1.5°C
threshold if the actual geophysical response ends up being towards the low end
of the currently estimated uncertainty range. Transition challenges as well as
identified trade-offs can be reduced if global emissions peak before 2030 and
marked emissions reductions compared to today are already achieved by 2030.”
IPCC is the acronym for Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC report I have just quoted from is a special
report which was released weeks to COP 24 in Katowice, Poland in 2018. The IPCC
is the United Nations’ tool for assessing the science related to climate
change. Quoting from their website, https://www.ipcc.ch/,
“The IPCC was created to provide
policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its
implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation
and mitigation options.”
CONCLUSION
The one terminal threat that
planet Earth is facing in our times, to my mind, is manmade climate change!
Planet Earth is literally being baked! Planet Earth is being literally baked
through global warming, resulting in climate change! Carbon emissions and
concentration is causing the global warming in terms of greenhouse gas
emissions into the atmosphere. A main source of this greenhouse gas is the
burning of fossil fuel by man.
Man cannot live elsewhere apart
from planet Earth. Not planet Jupiter. Not planet Mercury. Not any other planet,
but planet Earth. So there is no option for man to think of packing bag and
baggage to live elsewhere apart from planet Earth.
Since there is no other place in
the whole universe, apart from planet Earth for man to inhabit, and climate
change by its destructive force, is eating up our sole and indispensable
habitation, the only thing for man to do, if man is to keep their habitation
intact and survive, is to confront climate change head on!
As the confrontation is to be
applied universally, the United Nations Organization by its global nature and
outlook is well placed to spearhead this confrontation, which it is doing. The
United Nations Organization has raised the UNFCCC, as shown by this post, to
deal with the terminal threat of climate change. The UNFCCC which I call the
mop of the United Nations, in that it is the tool with which the United Nations
intends to mop the excess and global-warming causing carbon which results in
climate change.
The UNFCCC has set itself an
ultimate goal. The UNFCCC has developed platforms by which it reviews,
monitors, measures, strategizes and maintains its direction towards the attainment
of its ultimate goal. The main component of the platform is called COP. COP
stands for Conference of the Parties. I have indicated that the two outstanding
COPs are COP 3 and COP 21. Those two are commonly known as Kyoto Protocol and
Paris Agreement respectively. The current COP is COP 24 which took place in
2018.
In attaining the ultimate goal of
the UNFCCC, the use of renewables is of critical importance. The sustained
shift from the use of fossil fuel, and corresponding increase in dependence on
renewables, ensure a steady reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability
of natural resources. Notwithstanding the spike in the use of renewables in the
scheme of things of the man, a lot more remains to be done.
No wonder the IPCC report says
that man cannot hit the target it has set itself in arresting climate change. In
other words the UNFCCC is not on course to fulfil its ultimate goal! The UNFCC
is not on course to fulfil its ultimate goal because some parties to the
convention, more so those that matter, are not truly committed to targets they
have set themselves or are not even interested in the convention at all! The
United States as a nation is a typical example. The United States of America as
a nation, as of now, has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement!
PARTING SHOT
If we, as earthlings, do not take
timeous effective preventive measures to secure planet Earth (our one and only
habitation) from the terminally ominous threat of climate change, as the United
Nations through its mop, the UNFCCC is attempting to do, then Mother Nature herself
is going to restore nature by a full blown catastrophic climate change, and you
and I may not be around to see the restoration!
.
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