The question that constitutes the
title ought to be concerning to all earthlings. It is a question addressed to
all humans inhabiting planet Earth. That is a million dollar question many a
body corporate and concerned individuals, who have passion for a balanced
natural environment are committing their time and energy to. Whether you (as an
individual or as a group) are apathetic to the state of the natural environment
or not, the emissions gap is affecting you one way or another, even as I type
this paper.
The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (1992) defines emissions as the release of
greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified
area and a period of time.
Greenhouse gases as defined by the
Convention are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, natural and
anthropogenic, that absorb and reemit infrared radiation.
Infrared radiation has many meanings
but I have picked one from the website LIVESCIENCE and it is as follows: Infrared
radiation (IR), or infrared light, is a type of radiant energy that's invisible
to human eyes but that we can feel as heat. All objects in the universe emit
some level of IR radiation, but two of the most obvious sources are the sun and
fire.
IR is a type of electromagnetic
radiation, a continuum of frequencies produced when atoms absorb and then
release energy. From highest to lowest frequency, electromagnetic radiation
includes gamma-rays, X-rays, ultraviolet
radiation, visible light, infrared radiation, microwaves and radio
waves. Together, these types of radiation make up the electromagnetic
spectrum.
These emissions (carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide etc.), particularly the anthropogenic ones, in their
concentrations in the atmosphere are overheating the surface of planet Earth
with consequences that are not conducive to convenient habitation for
inhabitants of planet Earth.
Gap implies the comparism of two
things resulting in a difference. Difference is meant to be reconciled and gap
bridged.
This opening is meant to analyze the elements of emissions gap, and thereby define a context.
CONCEPT
This section looks at the concept of
emissions gap.
From the UNEP 2020 Emissions Gap
Report (Executive Summary-introduction section) emissions gap is defined: As in
previous years, this report assesses the gap between estimated future global
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation
pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are
aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference
between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the
‘emissions gap’.
From the same report, Chapter 3(3.1)
let us look at emissions gap from another angle in an attempt for a deeper
grasp: Consistent with previous Emissions Gap Reports, the emissions gap is
defined as the difference between projected global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions under full implementation of nationally determined contributions
(NDCs) and emissions under least-cost pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement
long-term goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2°C
and pursing efforts to limiting it to 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels..
What are the NDCs? Wikipedia tells us
what the NDCs are. It says the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)
or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) are
non-binding national plans highlighting climate actions, including climate
related targets for greenhouse gas
emission reductions, policies and measures governments aim to
implement in response to climate
change and as a contribution to achieve the global targets set
out in the Paris
Agreement.
Wikipedia further says, in terms of
process, thus: The NDCs combine the top-down system of a United Nations climate
agreement with bottom-up system-in elements through which countries put forward
their agreements in the context of their own national circumstances,
capabilities, and priorities, with the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions enough
to keep global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.[2]
(or below i.e. 1.5°C) [3]).
If a formula for emissions gap is to
be formulated then what follows should be an attempt at that formula:
Difference between what countries
commit to do to reduce emissions towards the achievement of the Paris Agreement
temperature targets and the 2015 Paris Agreement global temperature targets of 2°C, and towards 1°5C = Emissions Gap.
Activities of countries may close or widen the gap depending on how committed they are. A country can widen the gap if it emits for example more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than it has committed to do. On the other hand a country can close the gap if it reduces the carbon dioxide it emits in keeping with what it has committed to do. What matters is the global aggregation of emissions by nations and how it compares with the 2015 Paris Agreement temperature target of 2°C (towards 1°5 C) by 2030.
REALITY CHECK
Commitment to greenhouse gases
emissions reduction was made by nations. The commitment was to reduce
greenhouse gases at certain rates so as to attain a projected global mean
temperature of 2°C (towards 1.5°C) at a point in time (2030). This section
seeks to find out whether the nations are living up to expectation. It looks at
how the nationally determined contributions are being implemented by the
nations, and
whether they are on course to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature targets.
The Emissions Gap Report 2020, chapter
1 (1.1) paragraph 2 gives us a reality check: It is clear that global carbon
dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 will experience a
sizeable drop compared with 2019 levels as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.
Yet, enhanced climate ambition and action remain as urgent as ever. Although
2020 GHG emissions will decline, GHG concentrations in the atmosphere continue
to rise (World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 2020) and the immediate reduction
in emissions caused by COVID-19 lockdown measures is assessed to have a
negligible long term impact on climate change (Forster et al. 2020).
The Emissions Gap Report 2020 chapter
2(2.1) outlines an emissions trend prior to 2020 thus: GHG emissions grew in
2019 for the third consecutive year, indicating that the slowdown in emissions
growth during 2015 and 2016 was short-lived (figure 2.1). Since 2010, GHG
emissions (excluding land-use change (LUC)) have grown 1.4 per cent per year on
average, with preliminary data suggesting a 1.1 per cent increase in 2019.
When including the more uncertain and variable emissions from LUC, global GHG
emissions also grew 1.4 per cent per year since 2010 on average, but increased
a more rapid 2.6 per cent in 2019 due to a significant increase in forest
fires, particularly in Asia and the Amazon. GHG emissions4 reached a record
high of 52.4 GtCO2e (range: ±5.2) in 2019 without LUC emissions and increased
by 5.5 GtCO2 (range: ±2.6) when including the more uncertain LUC, which pushes
the total to 59.1 GtCO2e (range: ±5.9) (figure 2.1).
Not to bore you with the technicality
of GHG quantification and the fluidity of emissions scenarios and projections,
let us get to what the report plainly says, conclusively.
It is plainly stated in the Emissions
Gap 2020 in chapter 3.5.1 that: The
global average emissions reductions required per year to meet 2030 emission
levels that are consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios are by now
approximately quadruple and more than double, respectively, what they would
have been had serious collective climate action started in 2010. This
remarkable increase in annual emission reduction rates due to the lack of
sufficient action add significantly to the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement.
The conclusion is clear: postponing ambitious climate action, thereby delaying
the path towards reaching net zero emissions, will make it impossible to
achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal of limiting global warming to
1.5°C. Greater climate action is therefore needed by 2030 to make reducing
global GHG emissions to levels consistent with 1.5°C pathways feasible.
CONSEQUENCES
Not keeping up with commitments and
projections results in missing set targets. Failure to bridge the emissions gap
under the nationally determined contributions programme is much more than
merely missing set targets. It has unpleasant consequences for the natural
environment and the constituents thereof. The unpleasant consequences are
already manifesting themselves, hence the Paris Agreement in the first place.
The inability to bridge the emissions gap as of now aggravates the unpleasant
consequences. The unpleasant consequences is what is termed climate change. Manifestations
of climate change are rising sea levels, acidification of the sea, increasing melting
of ice at both the Artic and Antarctica, successive and escalatory annual high
temperatures in recent times, drought etc.
CONCLUSION
Having realized they have emitted so
much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere to cause climate change, man rightly
came to a rude awakening to redress the mess. To redress the mess the amount of
greenhouse gas being emitted into the atmosphere must be reduced systematically
till the atmosphere is possibly restored to its natural gaseous structure and
constitution. Man under the aegis of the United Nations Organization as a step
evolved the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately man has failed to keep faith with
the agreement. The emissions gap is
widening, not getting narrower. The following paragraph indicates what to do to
bridge the emissions gap.
In our society, we produce and consume
things through economic activities. In producing and consuming, greenhouse
gases are emitted. Man must find ways to produce and consume to meet our needs without
emitting greenhouse gases, in systematic, calculated and gradual ways, with
commitment, patience, unity of purpose and required urgency. Yet it must be a
radical shift from the use of fossil fuel in particular, to the use of
renewables. There is a need for timeous greenization of the global economy and
lifestyles.
Ref.:
https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationally_Determined_Contributions
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/list-of-greenhouse-gases.html
Comments
Post a Comment