PREFACE
Greta Thunberg, a precocious and an
unusual teen environmental activist addressed World Economic Forum’s 2020
Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. I am using a portion of the transcript of
her address as an introduction, and also to project the contents thereof. Greta
is saying that from the perspective of sustainability the leadership of the
world (adults) has failed us. The leadership of the world has failed man
because man’s transition from the use of fossil fuel or carbon generating materials
to renewables is not going as planned. In other words the sustainability plan
is not going well. I am projecting the content of the transcript by relooking
at sustainability- current state, bottlenecks, growth in renewables; and its
acceleration. And I am doing the projection from the perspective of
catastrophic anthropogenic climate change.
INTRODUCTION
Greta Thunberg had the opportunity to
address the World Economic Forum’s 2020 Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
Characteristically she delivered a radical and unbridled statement portraying
her passion and compassion for a planet Earth needing salvage, while still
salvageable.
From the transcript of her address to
be found at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/greta-speech-our-house-is-still-on-fire-davos-2020/
I extract a portion which follows:
‘From a sustainability perspective, the
right, the left, as well as the center, have all failed. No political ideology
or economic structure has been able to tackle the climate and environmental
emergency and create a cohesive and sustainable world. Because that world, in
case you haven’t noticed, is currently on fire.
You say children shouldn’t worry. You
say: “Just leave this to us. We will fix this, we promise we won’t let you
down. Don’t be so pessimistic.”
And then — nothing. Silence. Or
something worse than silence. Empty words and promises which give the
impression that sufficient action is being taken.
All the solutions are obviously not
available within today’s societies. Nor do we have the time to wait for new technological
solutions to become available to start drastically reducing our emissions.
So, of course, the transition isn’t
going to be easy. It will be hard. And unless we start facing this now
together, with all cards on the table, we won’t be able to solve this in time.’
In Greta’s speech quoted herein, the
word sustainability was mentioned as perspective. I should give you an
interesting definition of that word. Investopidea says: Sustainability focuses
on meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their needs. The concept of sustainability is
composed of three pillars: economic, environmental, and social—also known
informally as profits, planet, and people.
The takeaways from Greta’s speech are
as follows:
- Failure of the current leadership (adults) of the world to achieve required sustainability.
- Lack of faith in children for adults to effect required change.
- Knowledge that all the solutions are not available now, yet time is not on man’s side.
- Notwithstanding the difficulties, now is the time for a radical transition in sustainability to start (transition from depletable and carbon-generating materials to renewables).
GRETA
Were you wondering who Greta Thunberg
is? Here is a rundown on her:
Full Name- Greta Tintin Eleonora
Ernman Thunberg
Date of Birth- January 3, 2003 (17
years)
Nationality- Swedish
Activism- Environmental Activist on
Climate Change
Movement- School strike for the
climate
Awards
Time’s Person of the Year- 2019
Right Livelihood Award- 2019
Fritt Ord Award- 2019
Rachel Carson Prize- 2019
Ambassador of Conscience Award- 2019
International Children’s Peace Prize-
2019
UNEASY TRANSITION
It is not as if Greta is saying that
literally nothing is being done. The fear of Greta is that at the rate we are
going now man is missing the ultimate targets (1.5°C and 2°C) they have set
themselves in the sustainability trajectory. At least by the agenda of the
International Panel on Climate Change.
To measure man’s efforts in the
sustainability trajectory I should give a backdrop. To do that I am turning to
the International Energy Agency’s 2019 World Energy Outlook Report. The first
paragraph of the executive summary (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1f6bf453-3317-4799-ae7b-9cc6429c81d8/English-WEO-2019-ES.pdf)
of the report serves as that backdrop thus:
“The energy world is marked by a
series of deep disparities. The gap between the promise of energy for all and
the fact that almost one billion people still do not have access to
electricity. The gap between the latest scientific evidence highlighting the
need for evermore-rapid cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions and the data
showing that energy related emissions hit another historic high in 2018. The
gap between expectations of fast, renewables-driven energy transitions and the
reality of today’s energy systems in which reliance on fossil fuels remains
stubbornly high. And the gap between the calm in well supplied oil markets and
the lingering unease over geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.”
Against the foregoing backdrop targets
must be met. Target is spelt out in the report, and which Greta uses as
yardstick of acceleration in the sustainability trajectory. In paragraph 4,
under the “Understanding our scenarios” section of the executive summary, the
report defines broadly the target thus: “The Sustainable Development Scenario
maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full, requiring rapid and
widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. This scenario charts
a path fully aligned with the Paris Agreement by holding the rise in global
temperatures to “well below 2°C … and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5°C”,
and meets objectives related to universal energy access and cleaner air.”
How far has man gone with that? Does
it meet the expectation of Greta, for that matter children? I get the feeling
that the children fear that the sins of the fathers are going to be visited on
the children! Hence the “Greta effect”!
From the United Nations Environment
Program 2019 Emissions Gap Report we can get the answers. The Executive Summary point 1 says:
GHG emissions continue to rise,
despite scientific warnings and political commitments.
GHG emissions have risen at a rate of
1.5 per cent per year in the last decade, stabilizing only briefly between 2014
and 2016. Total GHG emissions, including from land-use change, reached a record
high of 55.3 GtCO₂e in 2018.
Fossil CO2 emissions from energy use
and industry, which dominate total GHG emissions, grew 2.0 per cent in 2018,
reaching a record 37.5 GtCO₂ per year.
There is no sign of GHG emissions
peaking in the next few years; every year of postponed peaking means that
deeper and faster cuts will be required. By 2030, emissions would need to be 25
per cent and 55 per cent lower than in 2018 to put the world on the least-cost
pathway to limiting global warming to below 2˚C and 1.5°C respectively.
RENEWABLES
Though reliance on fossil fuel remains
stubbornly high as the report is saying, some headway is being made with
renewables. The website https://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/resource/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-report-2018
says: “The report Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018, published
by UN Environment, the Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre,
and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, finds that falling costs for solar
electricity, and to some extent wind power, is continuing to drive deployment.
Last year was the eighth in a row in which global investment in renewables
exceeded $200 billion – and since 2004, the world has invested $2.9 trillion in
these green energy sources. Overall, China was by far the world’s largest
investing country in renewables, at a record $126.6 billion, up 31 per cent on
2016.
Solar energy dominated global
investment in new power generation like never before in 2017. The world
installed a record 98 gigawatts of new solar capacity, far more than the net
additions of any other technology – renewable, fossil fuel or nuclear and solar
power attracted far more investment, at $160.8 billion, up 18 per cent, than
any other technology.
In total $279.8 billion was invested
in renewables excluding large hydro and a record 157 gigawatts of
renewable power were commissioned last year, up from 143 gigawatts in 2016 and
far out-stripping the net 70 gigawatts of fossil-fuel generating capacity added
(after adjusting for the closure of some existing plants) over the same period.”
BOTTLENECKS
Though renewables are making a headway
reliance on fossil fuel a carbon-generating material is stubbornly high! Greta
is therefore justified in feeling that the sustainability trajectory must and ought
to be accelerated, and now!
The logical question that follows is
why is man not sticking to the roadmap (COP 21 etc.) they have drawn for
themselves? For action to be taken now as Greta is demanding, ought we not to
know what is holding us back? For acceleration to be in keeping with the roadmap
the bottlenecks must be removed, but before removing the bottlenecks they must
be identified. I follow with some of the bottlenecks:
- To start with earthlings themselves are divided as to the cause of global warming for that matter climate change! One part says the climate change earthlings are undergoing is caused by man e.g. burning of fossil fuel. Another part is saying the climate change earthlings are experiencing is due to natural causes e.g. solar radiation. Those who believe climate change is manmade have come up with the 1.5°C target and the programs and actions that lead thereto. Those who believe climate change is due to natural causes think the climate will sort itself out. There is yet a school of thought who say that climate is so complex man cannot find the cause for climate change. The whole point is that earthlings do not have unity of purpose! Overwhelming majority of people believe climate change is manmade (majority of climate scientists, United Nations, Greta Thunberg or rather Thunder etc. are in this group) . Those who go with natural causes are in the minority yet very powerful (e.g. the oil supermajors, presidents like President Donald Trump of USA and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil).
- The use of fossil fuel to support our
civilization, more so our current sophisticated one, has gone on for a long
time. Moving from the use of fossil fuel to the use of renewables must of
necessity take some time, careful thought and careful doing. The introduction
of renewable technology in itself is the hatching of a new civilization! The transition
obviously must be done so as to minimize societal disruptions; it involves
psychology, emotions and intellect.
- People live off the fossil fuel industry. What they own they earned from the fossil fuel industry. The properties they have, far flung in places in the world, they have them thanks to the fossil fuel industry. To give up the industry just like that is not going to be easy. It may be compared to a junky giving up drugs, a cold turkey must be expected. Their fat bank accounts are fed from monies made from the industry. These people are emotionally attached to the fossil fuel industry. For such people the transition from fossil fuel to renewables may be a matter of life and death. It must be added that nations too live off the fossil fuel industry.
- Greta herself faces intense attacks. The address https://theconversation.com/misogyny-male-rage-and-the-words-men-use-to-describe-greta-thunberg-124347 leads to examples of such intense attacks: In Australia, Herald Sun columnist Andrew Bolt has called Thunberg “freakishly influential … with many mental disorders”. Sky News commentator Chris Kenny described her as a “hysterical teenager” who needs to be cared for.
Overseas, male commentators have used
similar pejorative terms - describing her as a “mentally-ill
Swedish child”, unstable and
a “millenarian
weirdo”. One claimed Thunberg needed a
“spanking”; another likened her activism to “medieval
witchcraft”.
ACCELERATION
Notwithstanding the bottlenecks which
Greta herself admits is real, she says now is the time for a radical action
nonetheless! So let me close this section by saying that the sustainability
trajectory must be treaded cautiously and with unity of purpose, urgency, commitment
and discipline, taking into consideration the foregoing factors, striking the required
balance, giving realistic flexibility to the climate change roadmap to achieve
IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) agenda, and thereby placate
Greta and her generation. And earthlings too. Greta herself has said that we
must put all the cards on the table.
CONCLUSION
For Greta Thunberg, a mere child, 17
years old this year(2020), to explode, as she does, and is doing, regarding
climate change issues, that should send a signal that we are not in ordinary
times! There is something they call “Greta effect” which I have mentioned
already. The Greta effect is that her speeches are arousing the youth worldwide!
Look at Greta Thunberg. I have given a rundown on her. At the age of 17 check
the number of awards she has earned already. That should tell you that she is
not an ordinary child!
The attention she is gaining is
cutting across the demographics. She is speaking up to the world. She is saying
that we are lagging behind in the implementation of the roadmap (COP 21 etc.)
to achieving targets 1.5°C and 2°C, and inherently accelerated sustainability.
This is obvious and all who are into climate change are in the know. Greta is
therefore speaking up to the world to double up in the implementation of the
roadmap, and also as a rude awakening.
Greta is not speaking up out of
nothing. She is disappointed in the way adults are handling matters. She admits
there are inherent difficulties in achieving sustainability. Greta is a child
and for that matter speaks for children and the youth too. The consequences of
the negligence of adults today should be a burden for Greta’s generation
tomorrow!
Perhaps that thinking hunts them hence
the proclamation for action now by Greta!
In any case earthling face issues of
sustainability. Greta has popped up as a catalyst in the staggered process of
finding a solution to the issues. The definition of sustainability tells us
that the resources of the natural environment should be used in such a way that
every generation should have their share of them.
The use of the natural resources of
the natural environment should not be varied by one generation to the
disadvantage of other generations.
Ref.
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