Hinges do hold a door in place,
and also cause a door to turn.
To turn to open or to turn to
shut.
When a door opens it allows in
good things like fresh air for example, as well as bad things like unfriendly
insects for example. A door turned on its hinges allows the flow of hot, cool
or cold air. As when the sun turns hot it radiates hotness to planet Earth, on
the other hand when the sun turns cool or cold correspondingly it emits such
temperature to planet Earth.
We do describe one as unhinged.
When one is described as unhinged we are saying that that one is in disarray-
mental disarray. One’s mind is supposed to be held in check by hinges, as it
were, however, should the mind lose its hinges then one becomes unhinged! Could
one say the same for the Earth’s climate? I have no doubt in my mind that
planet Earth was meant to be habitable for its inhabitants. But when it becomes
uninhabitable, is it not then unhinged? Does it not mean that something has
given in the functional balance in planet Earth? Flash flood, drought, heat
waves etc., are these not indicators of an unhinged climate?
So now which hinges control the
climate of planet Earth?
In my last two posts I did talk
on climate change. In the first one “Ailing Natural Environment- Psychological
Tussle” the issue was that while the psychological tussle rages between climate
change doubters and climate change believers, the degeneration of planet Earth
deepens! And in the second one titled “Climate Change- Faith or Doubt?” the
issue was for earthlings to focus on the convergence on a positive common
ground for both believers and doubters to tackle climate change!
In this post I intend to draw our
attention to the hinges (factors) upon which planet Earth’s climate is determined,
or if you like the hinges upon which the climate of planet Earth is anchored or
rests. This, for me, is critical because most of the noise being made about
climate change does lack this fundamental architecture of climate inducement!
This subject is under the
umbrella of Earth System Science. I suppose you reasonably and justifiably want
to know what Earth System Science is. Now I should give you a NASA definition
of Earth System Science, and it is as follows: “Earth system science is the
study of how scientific data stemming from various fields of research, such as
the atmosphere, oceans, land ice and others, fit together to form the current
picture of our planet as a whole, including its changing climate.”
Climate scientists think there
are 3 basic factors (hinges) affecting climate change. The 3 basic factors are:
FORCINGS
CLIMATE FEEDBACKS
CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS
FORCINGS
Climate Forcing is explained with the help of https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/primer/climate-forcing as follows:
“Earth
is continually bathed in energy from the sun. A portion of the energy that
arrives at Earth is reflected back into space, another portion is absorbed
directly by the atmosphere, and the remainder moves through the atmosphere to
the surface. Sunlight energy heats land and water at the surface, and in turn,
they emit heat. This heat provides further warming of the atmosphere. The mix
of gases in our atmosphere keeps some of the heat energy from escaping directly
to space, similar to the way a blanket keeps warmth near your body. This
process is the naturally occurring greenhouse effect, and it keeps Earth warm
enough to support life.”
“In accordance with the basic laws of thermodynamics, as Earth
absorbs energy from the sun, it must eventually emit an equal amount of energy
to space. The difference between incoming and outgoing radiation is known as a
planet’s radiative forcing (RF). In the same way as applying a pushing force to
a physical object will cause it to become unbalanced and move, a climate
forcing factor will change the climate system. When forcings result in incoming
energy being greater than outgoing energy, the planet will warm (positive RF).
Conversely, if outgoing energy is greater than incoming energy, the planet will
cool.”
The following specifics constitute climate
forcings:
SOLAR
IRRADIACE
Solar irradiance is the sunlight that earthlings get from the sun.
Planet Earth is bound to get radiation from the sun. The temperature of the sun
or radiation from the sun determines the temperature on planet Earth. When the
temperature of the sun is high the temperature of planet Earth gets high. When
the temperature of the sun is low the temperature of planet Earth becomes
low.
Look at it this way. If you have, and run an alternating hot and
cold showers in your home, when the shower is on hot (regulator) you get a hot
shower, when the shower is on cold you get a cold shower! To my mind that is
how solar irradiance does with planet Earth.
This solar irradiance concept is the main position of doubters.
For doubters high temperature of the sun brought down to planet Earth global
warming up until the twentieth century, and now beginning this twenty-first
century a low solar temperature is bringing to planet Earth a cooling! A
precedent is a low temperature of the sun producing ices ages!
GREEENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
The number two under forcings is greenhouse gas emissions. These
days greenhouse gases are known more as bad gases than good gases. The most
notorious being carbon dioxide. What ought to be known is that the atmosphere
contain gases, including greenhouse gases, naturally occurring. These gases are
not in the atmosphere for nothing. They are there to trap sufficient heat to
keep us comfortably warm down here on planet Earth. This, in a way has been
explained under “Forcings”. It is the increase in the quantity of these gases
beyond their natural and required levels (levels required to keep the natural
environment in a temperature of equilibrium and balance) that is supposed to
cause the overbearing heat we call global warming!
The gases (particularly carbon dioxide) that find their way into
the atmosphere beyond their natural and required levels, causing global
warming, the believers say is as a result of human activities. This as
indicated in my last post is the main position of believers, as opposed to
doubters’ position that it is solar radiation that is the main cause of climate
change.
Please note that both main positions are stated as specifics under
Forcings.
The greenhouse gases are as follows:
Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Dichlorodifluoromethane (CCI2F2)
Chlorodifluoromethane (CHCIF2)
Tetrafluoromethane (CF4)
Hexafluoroethane (C2F6)
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)
Nitrogen Trifluoride (NF3)
Ozone (O3)
Water Vapor (H2O)
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas: “Without greenhouse gases, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about
−18 °C (0 °F),[2] rather than the
present average of 15 °C (59 °F).”
AEROSOLS,
DUST, SOOT AND SMOKE
Number three under forcings comes
as a group, as above. These are very small particles found in the atmosphere,
and are generated into the atmosphere by both natural and human agencies. Their
presence in the atmosphere affect the climate. The burning of coal, biomass and
volcanic eruptions produce sulfate aerosols which tend to cool the Earth. Particles
such as black carbon generate warming effect. (https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/)
CLIMATE FEEDBACKS
Climate feedback is the process whereby
climate forcing is either intensified or reduced. A feedback that intensifies a
forcing is called positive feedback. A feedback that reduces a forcing is
called negative feedback.
The following
specifics constitute climate feedbacks:
CLOUDS
Clouds reflect sunlight that hits
the Earth back into space. This function is important in the determination of
the surface temperature of planet Earth, reflecting about a third of sunlight
that enters the Earth’s atmosphere back into space. Increase in cloudiness
could therefore cause the alteration in the quantity of sunlight that hits the
surface of planet Earth. So cloud can either intensify or reduce a forcing
(irradiance).
PRECIPITATION
Increased water availability as a
result of precipitation may cause increased growth in plants. If you are
concerned with a sustainable natural environment then you should know the
importance of trees in the absorption of carbon dioxide, a notorious greenhouse
gas, from the atmosphere. And the reduction of carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere may result in a cooling.
TREE GROWTH
You may know that trees need
carbon dioxide in the process of photosynthesis. In the process carbon dioxide
quantity in the atmosphere may be reduced to create a cooling. But that depends
on the quantity of trees you have around. As I pen this post the Amazon forest
is being aggressively and systematically strip of trees. The more trees we have
the brighter the chance of a cooler Earth, on the other hand the less trees we
have a more warm Earth we create. So you see how tree, a climate feedback, can
intensify or reduce carbon dioxide, a forcing.
ICE ALBEDO
A warmer climate melts more ice,
and that increases the volume of ocean. And oceans absorb heat quicker thereby
accelerating and compounding a warming climate. Ice, white as it is, reflects
heat but a warming climate melts it, thereby compounding warming.
CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS
A general definition of tipping point is the critical point
in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible development.
Job One for Humanity (https://www.joboneforhumanity.org/climate_tipping_points)
defines global warming tipping point as: “The point where some process or new
stimulus causes a sudden and significant change in the status of the ongoing
process or system, causing it to jump from one state to a new, significantly
different state. This sudden change is not only significant; it is often
extreme!
As an example of a sudden and
significant change, imagine a wine glass tipping over and going from the state
of being full to empty. After the wine glass tipping point has been passed, a
transition to a new state quickly occurs.”
OCEAN CIRCULATION
As sea ice melt (Artic and
Greenland) because of global warming, ocean circulation in the Atlantic may
divert the Gulf Stream. This diversion could lead to a cooling in Western
Europe. This is an indication that change in ocean circulation affects regional
climate patterns. Why the Gulf Stream? The website https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ explains thus: “In
fact, England is about the same distance from the equator as cold regions of
Canada, yet England enjoys a much warmer climate. If it weren’t for the warm
water of the Gulf Stream, England would have a much colder climate.” This
should tell us that in a tipping point scenario England may freeze
irreversibly!
ICE LOSS
Under
“ICE ALBEDO” I talked about melting ice and the resultant rise in sea levels.
Another downside of ice loss with its concomitant rise in sea levels is that
thriving coastal communities may be submerged!
RELEASE OF METHANE COMPOUNDING WARMING
Under
ice is permafrost, a frozen subsoil, beneath the subsoil is methane. As ice
melts, as already indicated, the frozen subsoil is exposed, and methane a
greenhouse gas released into the atmosphere, thereby compounding global warming
for that matter climate change! Nearly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere is
covered by permafrost.
CONCLUSION
In this post I have attempted to
give an outline of the architecture of climate change inducement.
The three hinges upon which climate
change hangs are climate forcings, climate feedbacks and climate tipping
points. Under climate forcings there is solar irradiance. For me solar
irradiance is the most fundamental of all the hinges that determine the
temperature of planet Earth. Without the excessive carbon dioxide that has been
released into the atmosphere it is the temperature of the sun that will be the fundamental
determinant of the temperature of the surface temperature (hot, cool or cold)
of planet Earth. Climate forcings, climate feedbacks and climate tipping points
are the hinges upon which the state of the climate hang, manmade or naturally.
Like a door, depending on how the
hinges swing, you get a degree of warm or cold air entering your room. However,
if the door loses its hinge or hinges, then disaster should strike! The degree
of warm or cold air entering the room cannot be controlled! Is the climate in
such a condition now? Is the climate getting unhinged?
Let us get the answer from
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2019/09/25/climate-change-now-irreversible-due-warming-oceans-un-body-warns/
which says: ′Climate
change is now irreversible, thanks to ocean warming crossing a “tipping point”,
UN experts have warned.′
Ref.:
https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/
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